每日新闻更新 — 高盛和摩根士丹利发出警告 The Daily Update – Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley Issue a Warning

在过去的几天里,摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)和高盛(Goldman Sachs)的经济学家都警告说,经济衰退的可能性已经增加,因为正在进行的贸易战对全球经济产生的影响要比最初想象的大得多。

在摩根士丹利,他们的首席经济学家凯坦·阿亚(Chetan Ahya)在一份报告中表示,如果贸易纠纷继续升级,该公司认为全球经济衰退将在9个月左右的时间到来,特朗普政府将提高对来自中国的所有进口产品征收25%的关税4-6个月时间,该行动将导致“全球经济在三个季度内陷入衰退”。阿亚接着说:“本轮关税中约有三分之二的商品是消费品,跟之前那几轮相比,这可能会对美国产生更明显的影响”。他接着又说,“目前的贸易紧张局势已将企业信心和全球增长推向多年来的低点”。他还认为,就连央行也没有办法阻止即将到来的危机,他说,“全球的央行,特别是美联储和欧洲央行,可以提供额外的货币政策支持”,尽管这些政策有助于遏制下行的风险,但在贸易政策的不确定性消除之前,这些措施还不足以推动经济复苏”。

在高盛那边,他们的首席美国经济学家扬·哈齐乌斯(Jan Hatzius)也向客户表达了大致相同的看法。他写道,“我们已经提升了贸易战对经济增长形成影响的评估”,他还写道:“受到贸易战的影响,金融条件、政策的不确定性、商业信心和供应链分布都会导致经济增长低于预期” 。与此同时,高盛将其第四季度对增长的预测下调至1.8%,并预测商界因为不确定性的存在将缩减投资。

我们还注意到,(美国的)前财政部长劳伦斯·萨默斯(Lawrence Summers)表示,由于“虐恋般和愚蠢的贸易冲突”,全球经济已经处于十年前金融危机爆发以来最大的风险境地”。

我想问大家,1985年的时候,你在做什么?可能还在小学中学读书,可能在念大学,也可能正要开始去外边闯世界(也可能还没有出生,毕竟那是34年前了)。英镑兑美元以目前的水平进行交易的最后一次就在那一年。在撰写本文时,英镑对美元的交易价格为1.2064。谁也想不到像昔日的鲻鱼头发型、氨纶和护腿如今又流行了起来。 

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