每日新闻更新 — 美联储不仅只有利率的变化 The Daily Update – Not Just Rate Changes At The Fed

预计降息25个基点(甚至50个基点)可能不是美联储今天晚些时候即将发生的最大变化。今天有一项即将出台的参议院法案可能会很快强制美联储执行第三项任务(或者第四项任务,如果你把缓解金融危机也包括进去的话):这一项任务要求美联储在五年内平衡美国的经常账户。当然,美联储现有的官方授权就是保持价格稳定并保障充分就业。

美元作为全球储备货币的地位有很多优势,但目前的焦点似乎在明显的风险和过激之上。从长期的情况来看,存在着贸易逆差的永久趋势,从短期的情况来看,也存在投机性投资的问题,这个问题可能会助长美元的波动性,正如有些人所认为的那样,它会促使其价值过度膨胀。这项新的任务可能会授予美联储对外国投机和对美国资产投资征税的新的权力;引进这些“市场准入费”的目的是为了减少短期投机,但从长期的角度来看也可能对外国的直接投资产生一些影响。

让我们回顾一下股票和债券市场,2018年外国投资者购买了超过21万亿美元的美国证券。此外,外国持有的印有本杰明·弗兰克林(Benjamin Franklins)图像的(货币)流通从1980年的30%发展到现在的80%;令人们更为惊讶的是,自全球金融危机以来,进入流通的100美元面值的钞票增加了一倍以上,最近已经首次超过了1美元钞票的总数。

在过去15年中,美国的赤字已经从GDP的6%以上下降到现在的2.5%左右,但这已经包含了对贸易政策进行严厉的保护主义改革的功劳。现在,似乎有越来越多的迹象表明,特朗普的幻想般的理想正遭遇逆风,他希望在没有国家债务支持的情况下成为全球储备货币的持有者;中国越来越趋向于保护自己的利益,而最近数据显示的最重要的一点是,中国对美国和全球的贸易顺差在不断增加,这是中国逐渐减弱的进口和对除美国以外的市场出口的增长的综合作用所致。根据外交关系委员会的布拉德·塞瑟(Brad Setser)的说法,“中国与不受唐纳德·J·特朗普(Donald J. Trump)管理的国家的制造业的贸易顺差在过去12个月中增加了大约1000亿美元。”

如果美元确实被过高估值(国际货币基金组织最近预测它被高估了6-12%),那么跟使用关税和以邻为壑的政策利率相比,对外国投资者的这种收费可能是实现预期的贬值的一种更有效的方式。随着对贸易战的报复和全球其他中央银行的进一步宽松政策,美国在制定外国“市场准入费”方面具有独特的优势,而在其他国际化程度较低的市场,旨在削弱对方的同样的政策对其货币施加的压力就不会那么奏效。然而,这种政策的不可避免的副作用将会给摇摇欲坠的市场带来进一步的波动,而这实际上并不是市场目前所需要的。

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