每日新闻更新 — 特朗普发推文有点迟缓,美联储表立场令人费解 The Daily Update – Trump slow, Fed confusing

美联储昨晚降息25个基点之后,朗普总统究竟会在哪一刻作出反应,我们斯特拉顿大街特对此进行了抽奖活动,结果在美联储宣布后的3小时17分钟(我的估计是3小时7分钟)有一张彩票中奖,彩票是一张推文,上边写着“鲍威尔,你让我失望了”的字样。

美联储十年来首次降息,尽管(对这一决定)有两位反对者,他们是罗森格伦(Rosengren)和乔治(George);美联储还宣布,他们将在8月份提前两个月停止资产负债计划。然而,在新闻发布会上却出现了一些相互矛盾的信息,鲍威尔(Powell)主席称这次降息是“对中期政策的调整”,旨在“为增长疲弱和贸易领域的不确定性带来的下行风险进行保险”,可是稍后他又表示,对于全球经济增长、制造业和低于目标通胀的风险感到担忧。这番言论引发了债券收益率和股市的一场暴风雨。其实,国债收益率曲线趋于平缓,与此同时,长期债券上涨了3个基点,而国债收益率今天早上比昨天早上高出6个基点。

关于资产负债表的决定,这意味着他们将开始对到期的财政部证券进行再投资,相信该数额在8月份约为150亿美元,9月份为130亿美元。这将增加他们在拍卖会上的附加购买量,同时也会减少相同金额的对国债资金的需求。他们还将通过公开市场的运作每月将大约200亿美元即将成熟的抵押贷款支持证券(MBS)的收益投资到国债中来,以帮助减轻政府对资金的需求。

至于美联储对未来前景的预测以及9月份进一步降息的可能性,我们将再次需要数据来说话 — 明天的非农就业数据、今天的ISM和制造业采购经理人指数是第一批关键的数据报告。在这个关键时刻,我们对9月降息的预测是50:50,但我们预计到年末的时候债券收益率将低于今天。九月份是个非常有趣的月份,我的生日、贸易谈判的重启和9月18日的美联储会议,还有,我们都应该已经度过了度假之后的忧郁期。

与此同时,节日快乐和市场快乐是(我们的)预测。

Please read this important information before proceeding. It contains legal and regulatory notices relevant to the information on this site.

This website provides information about Stratton Street Capital LLP ("Stratton Street"). Stratton Street is authorised and regulated by the UK's Financial Conduct Authority. The content of this website has been prepared by Stratton Street from its records and is believed to be accurate but we do not accept any liability or responsibility in respect of the information of any views expressed herein. The information, material and content provided in the pages of this website may be changed at any time by us. Information on this website may be out of date and may not be updated or removed.

The website is provided for the main purpose of providing generic information on Stratton Street and on our investment philosophy for the use of financial professionals in the United Kingdom that qualify as Professional Clients or Eligible Counterparties under the rules of the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the "FCA"). The information in this website is not intended for the use of and should not be relied on by any person who would qualify as a Retail Client. Products and services referred to on this website are offered only at times when, and in jurisdictions where, they may be lawfully offered. The information on this website is not directed to any person in the United States. The provision of the information on this website does not constitute an offer to purchase securities to any person in the United States (other than a professional fiduciary acting for the account of a non-U.S person) or to any U.S. person as such term is defined under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.

The website is not intended to offer investors the opportunity to invest in any Alternative Investment Fund ("AIF") product. The AIFs managed by Stratton Street are not being marketed in the European Economic Area ("EEA") and any eligible potential investor from the EEA who wishes to obtain information on the AIFs will only be provided with materials upon receipt by Stratton Street of an appropriate reverse solicitation request in accordance with the requirements of the EU Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive ("AIFMD") and national law in their home jurisdiction. By proceeding you confirm that you are not accessing this website in the context of a potential investment by an EEA investor in the AIFs managed by Stratton Street and that you have read, understood and agree to these terms.

No information contained in this website should be deemed to constitute the provision of financial, investment or other professional advice in any way. The website should not be relied upon as including sufficient information to support any investment decision. If you are in doubt as to the appropriate course of action we recommend that you consult your own independent financial adviser, stockbroker, solicitor, accountant or other professional adviser. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up. An application for any investment or service referred to on this site may only be made on the basis of the offer document, key features, prospectus or other applicable terms relating to the specific investment or service.

Where we provide hypertext links to other locations on the Internet, we do so for information purposes only. We are not responsible for the content of any other websites or pages linked to or linking to this website. We have not verified the content of any such websites. Such websites may contain products and services that are not authorised in your jurisdiction. Following links to any other websites or pages shall be at your own risk and we shall not be responsible or liable for any damages or in other way in connection with linking.

By using this site, you should be aware that we may disclose any information that we hold about you to any regulatory authority to which we are subject, or to any person legally empowered to require such information.

This website uses cookies to improve user experience, by clicking the "I Accept" button below means you consent to the use of cookies on our website.