每日新闻更新 — 阿布扎比 - The Daily Update – Abu Dhabi

本周早些时候,阿布扎比酋长国将三期债券推向市场,它们分别是30亿美元的5年期债券、30亿美元的10年期债券和40亿美元的30年期债券,金额共计100亿美元,点差分别高出美国国债65个基点、85个基点和110个基点。 据报道,订单额达到了240亿美元,因此点差从初始指导价收紧了15个基点就不足为奇了。

这一强劲的需求可能反映了阿布扎比的高评级和正收益。穆迪、标准普尔和惠誉分别将阿布扎比评为Aa2/AA/Aa,反映出该国明显的信用实力:阿布扎比的普通政府债务水平较低,2018年(根据标准普尔的同济)的债务仅为GDP的6.8%,而且拥有强有力的净国外资产地位。阿布扎比的高水平财政实力得到了来自包括主权财富基金(如阿布扎比投资局)在内的资产缓冲的支持:标准普尔估计,阿布扎比投资局的资产在2019年至2022年期间将平均超过GDP的250%。这些资产与较低的政府债务水平相结合就为帮助抵消低油价时期的不利影响提供了缓冲,同时允许该酋长国出现财政赤字。由于受油价回升的推动,阿布扎比的财政状况在2018年接近收支平衡。

需要提醒大家一点的是,海湾合作委员会固定收益市场在年初至今表现强劲,得益于更多的指数纳入和投资者意识的增强。因此,从估值的角度来看,阿布扎比酋长国目前提供的债券的上涨空间少于某些阿布扎比准主权发行单位的上涨空间。例如,穆巴达拉(Mubadala)是一家准主权发行单位,穆迪/标准普尔/惠誉将其2041年到期、利息为6.875%的债券分别评定为Aa2/AA/Aa,其评级与阿布扎比的评级一致,因为该100%为政府拥有,从战略工具的角度看,该单位也在公共政策中起着重要的作用。在我们的模型中,该特定发行的交易价约为3.6个信用刻度便宜,而收益率为3.17%左右。

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