每日新闻更新 — 10年之后的希腊 The Daily Update – Greece 10 years on

十年前的今天,希腊2年期国债收益率触及1.24%的历史新低,随后在接下来的几年中出现暴涨,因为投资者意识到该国的A1评级并不真实。当时,大多数投资者似乎仍愿意向负债累累的国家提供贷款,尽管对风险的补偿明显不足,例如希腊。结果在12个月之内该国已经在公开讨论违约的问题;到2012年的时候,不可避免的事情终于变成了现实。

在我们斯特拉顿大街,在2009年的时候,整个年度我们都一直在警告西班牙、葡萄牙和希腊所面临的问题。那么十年后,我们从中学到了什么?从许多债券投资者手中持有的资产来看,(似乎人们)从中学习到的东西并不多。从大约有17万亿美元的债券在以负收益进行交易的情况来看,很显然有大量的投资者愿意进行这种肯定要亏损的投资。以负收益率向安全的债主提供贷款是一回事,但以一定要发生的负收益率向充满了风险的债主贷款却是另一回事。 

就拿葡萄牙来说吧,这个国家的净外国债务超过其GDP的100%,两年期债券收益率交易时为负0.54%。跟2009年向希腊提供贷款相比,洋洋自得地向葡萄牙提供贷款其实更没有意义,但这似乎并不能阻止投资者趋之如骛。除了“我的债券指数告诉我”以外,人们很难合理地解释为什么投资者会选择去承担这样的风险。如果一切顺利,您损失的资金会少一些,如果情况不顺利,您损失的将是大量的资金,这种投资方法似乎并不能经得起时间的考验。

尽管回报的幅度可能没有那么高,但任何在2009年5月持有2年期希腊国债的人,首先是赚了几个月的钱,接下来便遭受了重大的损失。但是,如果有一个我们都应该从10年前的事件中学到的教训的话,那么它就是承担不必要的风险是得不偿失的。我们不持有任何负债累累的国家的债券,也不持有任何负收益率的债券。更为重要的是,对于那些来自债台高筑的债务国同时又以负收益率在交易的债券,我们不会持有。

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