每日新闻更新 — 美联储忙碌的一周 The Daily Update – A busy week at the Fed

我们预计美联储将在今晚再降息25个基点,同时保留其核心指导语言,将本次降息描述为周期中的调整,同时还会坚持“我们将采取适当的行动来维持经济扩张”的观点。期货市场在定价中不仅考虑到了今天预期中的这个行动,而且也考虑到了在明年1月之前将有25个基点的进一步降息。

美联储成员对未来基金利率的预期的“点阵图”可能是令人意外的原因,尽管未来利率的实际水平一直表现得过高,但是我们预计成员对未来前景的预期会下降。这与短时期的担忧(如贸易战、甚至脱欧的压力)无关,而与通货膨胀的前景、菲利普曲线的平坦化、美国(收益率)曲线倒置的情况以及所谓的中立率(不仅在美国而且在国外)前景有关。在这方面,我们期待美联储通过“点阵图”发出2020年以后进一步降息的信号,同时保持其周期中调整的措辞,从整体上来说,短期内仍然要依赖数据,但从长期来看,降低未来中性基金利率。

由于流动性枯竭,短期利率飙升至10%,美联储交易员昨日跳入货币市场注入现金,这是十年来的第一次。  可用于日常活动的资金供应出现紧张情况,市场上似乎存在结构性问题。在华尔街的资产负债表走精益路线之际,创纪录的美国国债发行正在把现金从流通中夺走,而且此时碰巧有一些现金提取以支付公司的季度税单。

 

在美联储干预后,隔夜利率回落至4%,我们预计今天还会有一个回合以在短期内帮助朝着基金利率的方向进一步降低利息。回购市场中的这些操作在金融危机之前并不少见,但由于不断扩大的美联储资产负债表和用于管理流动性的目标利率范围,后来发生了变化。我们可能会看到活跃的美联储交易员重新干预回购市场。

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