每日新闻更新 — 摆在意大利新联盟面前的任务 The Daily Update – A Task Ahead for New Italian Coalition

上周,意大利的民主党(PD)和五星运动党(M5S)联合政府宣誓就职,本周该国将面临几次信任投票;昨晚议会的下院对此进行了投票并得到了积极的结果,今天将在上院举行投票。一旦所有这些程序办理完毕,新组成的意大利联合政府将开始制定其2020年预算提案,该提案将于10月中旬提交给欧盟和该国议会;但是,预计会有一些延误。

 有趣的是该政府将如何降低明年的结构性赤字水平以避免制裁,目前已经超过了GDP的2%。在2018年12月的时候,该国成功地避免了(让欧盟动用)过度赤字程序,但作为《稳定与增长公约》规则的一部分,意大利必须削减其结构性赤字,直至达到平衡或盈余。有趣的是,意大利总理朱塞佩·孔戴(Giuseppe Conte)呼吁改革欧盟规则,目前的规则将国家的赤字限制在GDP的3%之内,他告诉议会说:“我们还需要改进《稳定与增长公约》及其应用,并对该规则进行简化,避免顺周期效应,并支持投资”。一段时间以来,欧洲已经要求意大利减少赤字,从而减少债务;该国的债务目前已经超过23亿欧元,超过了GDP的130%,是继希腊之后欧元区第二差的水平。

市场似乎看好新的联合政府,基准10年期意大利政府债券的利差已经超过了德国债券150个基点,在5月底的时候曾高达285个基点。有些人可能会说,新的联合政府对欧盟友好,这将减少人们对意大利脱欧的担忧。然而,在我们英国这边,随着英国脱欧的最后期限越来越近,我们仍旧在等待,议会将正式停摆五周,我们离达成协议仍是那么遥远。

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