每日新闻更新 — 相互冲突的工作数据 The Daily Update – Conflicting Jobs Data

根据调查显示,十个美国人当中就有六个人担心在接下来的12个月中会发生经济衰退,但这并没有阻止接近创纪录的工人正在选择离开他们的职位,这是经济稳健和市场乐观的典型信号。昨天公布的工作数据显示,所谓的“辞退工作率”达到了18年来的峰值 — 2.4%,超过该水平的只有2001年1月的时候 — 2.5%(不过当时的裁员率更高 — 1.7%,今年到目前为止的裁员率仅为1.1-1.2%)。职位空缺在稳步上升,从2009年中期的220万增加到2018年11月的760万,虽说2019年到本月为止已逐渐减少,但仍高于720万,远远超过了600万的官方失业人数。

由于美国的失业率仅为3.7%,而裁员人数依旧不高,因此目前很高但在走弱的职位空缺的数据和近期走弱的非农就业的数据究竟能够在多大程度上预测(经济走向)变得越来越困难。最新公布的13万的非农就业数据低于预期,并使2019年至今的平均读数低于16万,而在2018年期间的平均值还要高于22万。

如果这些关于辞退和裁员的外围读数没有发出相互矛盾的信号的话,那么职位空缺和(非农)就业数据的下降将成为未来工资和经济增长放缓的强烈信号。在一个更加饱和的劳动力市场中,这些数据并不能像平时那么准确地反映公司的实际招聘情绪:因为疲软可能不仅仅是由于贸易紧张和消费者对其产品的需求所引起的。

很难看到职位空缺的增长远远超过最近水平的情况:该水平已经超过了2007年之前的高峰的150%(超过了2009年低点的3倍);同样也很难看到作为一个稳定的长期利好因素的失业率的进一步下降,但是,只要这些数字不会与目前的水平相差太远,而且劳动力市场仍有相对强劲的动力迹象和相对较低的裁员水平,那么,我们在2019年迄今为止看到的走弱的关键数据就不太可能预示经济衰退立刻就要到来。

此外,18年前的今天,发生了震惊并改变了世界的悲剧 — 911事件。当天,美国东部夏令时间08:46和40秒(英国夏令时13:46),11号航班从纽约世界贸易中心北塔的北面撞击后爆炸;16分钟后,在美国东部时间09:03分整,175号航班从南塔的南面撞击后爆炸。从此,世界发生了不少变化。但是那些失去生命的人们将被记住。

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