每日新闻更新 — 美联储在仔细观察中 The Daily Update – Fed carefully watching

正如预期的那样,联邦公开市场委员会将联邦基金的目标区间下调25个基点至1.75-2%,该声明指出,尽管委员会认为将来最有可能的结果是“经济活动持续扩张,劳动力市场强劲,通货膨胀接近委员会制定的对称的2%的目标”,但他们也承认“这种前景的不确定性仍然存在”。 该决定是一次“鹰派降息”:最新的中位数点阵图显示,今年或2020年没有进一步的降息,在今天的决定中出现了分歧,埃斯特·乔治(Ester George)和埃里克·罗森格伦(Eric Rosengren)不同意这一削减利率的决定,詹姆斯·布拉德(James Bullard)也提出反对意见,因为他认为削减50个基点更为合适。

期货市场的定价继续把还有一次降息考虑在内,但美国国债的交易市场在昨天收盘时略微走软,美元走强。与此同时,唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)在推特上发泄不满,觉得这次降息的幅度并不大,他在推特上说,“鲍威尔和美联储又失败了。(他)没有‘勇气’,麻木不仁,缺乏远见!是一个非常糟糕的沟通者!”

在新闻发布会上,杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)指出,消费者“处于强势的状态”而制造业相对较弱,但他认为,尽管地缘政治、全球经济增长放缓和贸易政策的不确定性对于经济的前景来说仍然是主要的风险,但美国经济增长是稳固的,GDP接近了2%的预测。因此,美联储并不在“预先设定的轨道”上,而是在仔细观察情况的发展,如果需要,他们仍然可以决定实施“更多次降息”,但这并不是他们的基本立场。当被问及是否要使用负利率时,鲍威尔表示他更倾向于选择别的政策,他说,“如果将来有一天,我们再次发现我们处在了有效下限的境地,再次看到了并非我们期待的局面,那么我认为我们就会考虑使用大规模的资产购买和前瞻性指导,”他说他觉得这种做法在金融危机时就“非常奏效”。

继本周早些时候回购利率飙升以及有效联邦基金利率突破上限之后,美联储还将超额准备金利息(IOER)和反向回购利率下调30个基点,分别至1.8%和1.7%。 在新闻发布会上,鲍威尔说他们正在“密切地关注市场的发展并评估其对适当储备水平的影响”,他还表示,“我们很快就要评估何时才适合恢复资产负债表的有机增长。”

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