每日新闻更新 — 沙特阿拉伯“抵御破坏性打击的能力”究竟有多大 - The Daily Update - Saudi Arabia's "resilience to very damaging shocks'

本周早些时候,穆迪把对沙特阿拉伯2019年的经济增长预测下调至0.3%,今年年初的预测为1.5%。该评级机构称,对政府收入产生主要影响的因素是欧佩克主导的减产协议。该评级机构目前对沙特阿拉伯的长期评级为A1,与惠誉一致,而标准普尔对该国的长期评级为A-。值得注意的是,该评级机构目前尚未提及是否要对沙特阿拉伯的稳定评级进行审核。

谈到最近受到的袭击,穆迪表示,他们不希望“这种暂时的破坏会对政府的信用状况产生长期的影响”。穆迪还表示,在短期的生产中断之后,政府充裕的5000亿外汇储备(包括黄金,7月份的情况如此)加上其“战略原油储备”为经济提供了足够的缓冲。

有消息称,沙特阿拉伯已经按计划提前恢复了石油产量,日产量已经达到1130万桶,完全恢复生产预计将到月底。特已经从大量的石油库存中调用了资源(尽管来自不同油田的不同等级),以维持给客户提供的受到攻击之前的水平。布伦特原油在过去几周经历了过山车般的冲击,目前的交易价格略高于每桶62美元,但在袭击事件发生后每桶的价格曾一度飙升至近72美元。

沙特的5年期信贷违约掉期目前位于77美元左右,尽管它已从本月初的低点反弹,但仍远低于1月份110.9美元左右的高点。在我们看来,尽管对沙特石油生产的袭击事件无疑将对经济产生一些短期的影响,但是,在需要进一步的缓冲的同时,沙特王国有足够的能力来克服这一困难,并拥有财政手段以扩大政府的财政收入。美国和伊朗的事态发展将是饶有兴趣的事情,但是据我们了解,美国和其他西方大国愿意支持沙特阿拉伯,但我们只希望这种支持仅以非侵略性的方式而为之。

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