每日新闻更新 — 全球经济增长正在放缓 The Daily Update – Weakening Global Growth

经合组织最新的中期经济前景继续指出,保护主义的贸易政策对经济的增长产生负面影响。他们的最新预测是,2019年全球增长率为2.9%,2020年为3%,低于5月份预测的3.2%和3.4%:这是自金融危机以来最低的增长水平。此外,他们认为“下行的风险在继续攀升”,并将前景描述为“脆弱和不确定”。

经济合作与发展组织(OECD,简称“经合组织”)的首席经济学家劳伦斯·布恩(Laurence Boone)评论说,“全球经济正面临着越来越严重的逆风;缓慢的增长已陷入困境,而且已经到了令人担忧的地步”。在谈到保护主义的时候,她指出“原本看起来是暂时的贸易紧张局势现在已经变成了一种持久的贸易关系新常态,”她接着又说,“监管贸易的全球秩序已经消失,我们进入的新时代的贸易关系不如原来那么确定,更多的是双边关系,而且有时过于武断。”

该报告指出,G20国家的总投资从2018年初的5%(年化)急剧放缓至2019年的1%。此外,主要发达经济体的资本货物生产(商业投资指标)在2019年的上半年出现急剧的下降。报告指出,对耐用消费品(尤其是汽车)的需求也已经放缓。并不令人感到惊奇的是,经合组织注意到这对德国经济增长的影响,布恩说,德国的经济在第二和第三季度可能已经萎缩。经合组织还对英国无协议脱欧的风险发出了警告,该组织预计,如果英国在拿到一个协议的情况下脱欧,2020年的经济增长率将达到0.9%,但同时也表示:“无协议脱欧在短期内将耗费巨大的资金,有可能会把英国2020年的经济推入衰退,并大幅度减少欧洲经济的增长。”

尽管本周联邦公开市场委员会的决定更多是“鹰派的降息”,但杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)强调,前景并不清晰,我们的政策并不是按照预先设定的路线而决定的,有关决定会通过多次会议逐渐做出,与此同时,美联储试图判断出到目前为止已经减少的50个基点是否已经“够用”。我们深信不疑的一点是:我们继续认为,贸易的不确定性、地缘政治的风险和英国脱欧的负面影响将对全球增长前景构成压力,美联储可能不得不再次降息。

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