On a Trump Presidency

Donald Trump’s election victory is bringing forth a lot of speculation on the next administration’s possible economic policies and their consequences.  These exercises are fraught with uncertainty in part because Trump as a candidate spoke so little about what his policies would be. A few themes are likely to remain intact now that election posturing is finished and so some thoughts are worth considering. Some of the main items on the agenda supposedly will include: renegotiating trade agreements including NAFTA, curbing immigration, health care reform (again), deregulation (notably for small businesses), repeal of Dodd-Frank, tax cuts and most significantly fiscal stimulus presumably in the context of infrastructure spending. Some of this agenda, however modified, is likely to move forward in 2016 because America has voted for ‘change’. Recall that each of the previous 8-year US presidents (Reagan, Clinton, Bush and Obama) was replaced with someone who was diametrically different in some sense from their predecessor, so the populous expects and Congress must deliver something new.  

The Trump agenda is a mixed bag of supposedly pro-growth policies for the short run that unfortunately could have very negative consequences for the economy’s long term potential, so let’s divide the discussion into two phases – the short view and the long view.

The Short View

Not surprisingly, much of the market’s initial reaction seems to focus on the short view, especially the prospects for infrastructure spending. Markets have responded by raising inflation premiums on long term bonds. Although a growing consensus of economists now believes infrastructure spending is a viable anecdote for secular stagnation, some caveats are noteworthy. 

  • When an economy is operating close to its potential, as is the case with the US economy today, an outsized initiative on infrastructure is ill-advised. The projects rarely provide jobs for the long-term unemployed or those who lack the requisite skills for such work. Moreover, the extra stimulus is likely to cause some inflation with a lag of about one year if it pushes the economy above potential. In a world where deflation still lingers, the risk is not so much a reversion to high inflation but rather the persistence of inflation from operating the economy ‘too hot’.
  • Congress will likely set restrictions on what projects would qualify, typically limiting the ventures to so-called ‘shovel-ready’ initiatives under the guise that the spending would not be a permanent feature of the government’s budget. The flip side of ‘shovel-ready’ however is that little thought is given to the long-term payback from projects or to what would be high priorities in raising the nation’s potential output. Only a small portion of the ARRA funding in 2009 was devoted to ‘greenfield’ projects which were next to impossible to accomplish within the two-year window of the stimulus package. The result often that most of the money is spent on pet projects, local road projects and transfers to local governments. This approach would be antithetical to the notion of remedying secular stagnation.
  • Waste is the Achilles’ heel of congressional legislation and infrastructure is no exception. Consider Japan’s ambitious building program of the 1990s that did nothing to augment potential growth but did implode the government deficit that remains today.

Full PDF

Please read this important information before proceeding. It contains legal and regulatory notices relevant to the information on this site.

This website provides information about Stratton Street Capital LLP ("Stratton Street"). Stratton Street is authorised and regulated by the UK's Financial Conduct Authority. The content of this website has been prepared by Stratton Street from its records and is believed to be accurate but we do not accept any liability or responsibility in respect of the information of any views expressed herein. The information, material and content provided in the pages of this website may be changed at any time by us. Information on this website may be out of date and may not be updated or removed.

The website is provided for the main purpose of providing generic information on Stratton Street and on our investment philosophy for the use of financial professionals in the United Kingdom that qualify as Professional Clients or Eligible Counterparties under the rules of the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the "FCA"). The information in this website is not intended for the use of and should not be relied on by any person who would qualify as a Retail Client. Products and services referred to on this website are offered only at times when, and in jurisdictions where, they may be lawfully offered. The information on this website is not directed to any person in the United States. The provision of the information on this website does not constitute an offer to purchase securities to any person in the United States (other than a professional fiduciary acting for the account of a non-U.S person) or to any U.S. person as such term is defined under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.

The website is not intended to offer investors the opportunity to invest in any Alternative Investment Fund ("AIF") product. The AIFs managed by Stratton Street are not being marketed in the European Economic Area ("EEA") and any eligible potential investor from the EEA who wishes to obtain information on the AIFs will only be provided with materials upon receipt by Stratton Street of an appropriate reverse solicitation request in accordance with the requirements of the EU Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive ("AIFMD") and national law in their home jurisdiction. By proceeding you confirm that you are not accessing this website in the context of a potential investment by an EEA investor in the AIFs managed by Stratton Street and that you have read, understood and agree to these terms.

No information contained in this website should be deemed to constitute the provision of financial, investment or other professional advice in any way. The website should not be relied upon as including sufficient information to support any investment decision. If you are in doubt as to the appropriate course of action we recommend that you consult your own independent financial adviser, stockbroker, solicitor, accountant or other professional adviser. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up. An application for any investment or service referred to on this site may only be made on the basis of the offer document, key features, prospectus or other applicable terms relating to the specific investment or service.

Where we provide hypertext links to other locations on the Internet, we do so for information purposes only. We are not responsible for the content of any other websites or pages linked to or linking to this website. We have not verified the content of any such websites. Such websites may contain products and services that are not authorised in your jurisdiction. Following links to any other websites or pages shall be at your own risk and we shall not be responsible or liable for any damages or in other way in connection with linking.

By using this site, you should be aware that we may disclose any information that we hold about you to any regulatory authority to which we are subject, or to any person legally empowered to require such information.

This website uses cookies to improve user experience, by clicking the "I Accept" button below means you consent to the use of cookies on our website.