RBF UCITS Monthly - July 2019

  • The Fund’s IDUSD class gained 1.07% (net of fees) in July; +10.41% YTD

  • US Fed cut rates 25 basis points but Powell's mixed message left markets on edge

  • US yield curve flattened, shorter dated yields rose as many had expected a 50 bps cut

  • President Trump exacerbated concerns with fresh tariffs on China post month end 

  • Renminbi fell 0.38% against the dollar (-0.16% as a total return)

  • We think there is much more “left in the tank” regarding our bond positions as valuations still “cheap”

  • The path for global rates is lower

Another solid month’s performance for the Fund where the GCC holdings continued to perform despite ongoing tensions in the region: the Abu Dhabi, Qatar and Saudi Arabia holdings contributed 45bps, 27bps and 18bps respectively to performance. Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline 4.6% 2047, RZD Capital 7.487% 2031, Saudi Electricity 5.06% 2043, and Ruwais Power 6% 2036 were amongst the main contributors over the month.

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RBF UCITS Monthly - June 2019

  • Fund’s IDUSD class gained 3.08% (net of fees); +9.24% YTD

  • Slowing growth and dovish central banks support bond markets

  • US-China trade tensions continue; some reprieve at month end

  • Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran escalate; oil price benefits

  • Renminbi gained 1.23% vs US dollar

The renminbi was a strong contributor to performance (+1.23% helped by a more dovish Fed and expectations of rate cuts driving US dollar weakness) as were the Fund’s GCC holdings.  The latter continued to perform well despite an escalation in tensions between the US and Iran. The Abu Dhabi and Qatar holdings contributed 79bps and 71bps respectively to performance.  Mubadala 6.875% 2041, State of Qatar 6.4% 2040 and Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline 4.6% 2047 were amongst the main contributors over both the month and YTD. YTD these holdings contributed 2.09% to performance.

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RBF UCITS Monthly - May 2019

  • The Fund’s IDUSD class lost 0.96 (net of fees)

  • Bonds outperform as US Treasury yields extend rally

  • Trade frictions weigh on the economic outlook

  • Fed in pause mode, but for how long?

Spreads have performed very well during the month in regard to the better rated assets; lesser rated assets have struggled and even resulted in individual names giving a negative performance on the month. Of course as mentioned above the long end of the US Treasury market out performed with a stunning price performance but other highly rated credits have performed with similar vigour.

The top performers during the review period were the long dated US Treasury bonds and the Mubadala 41’s, these issues made a very positive contribution to performance. Indeed the Middle East continues to perform well and continues to benefit from the inclusion in the JP Morgan index with the Abu Dhabi government bond holding maturing in 2047 also a top contributing bond. So far this year Abu Dhabi and Qatar are the best two country contributors with Saudi Arabia and the US also performing well along with Russia. On the month our Oman holdings were underperformers as the issuer had a difficult month due to continued worries over the government’s budget, however, Oman has been a positive contributor year to date. We will look for an opportunity to reduce exposure to Oman but prefer to wait for more realistic pricing to enact the reduction.

In terms of currency the Renminbi continues to be a drag on performance, as mentioned above. We do think the currency will perform later in the year as the US dollar starts to fade but in the short term the trade frictions will keep pressure somewhat on the Chinese currency unit.

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RBF UCITS Monthly - April 2019

  • The Fund’s IDUSD class gained 0.24% (net of fees)

  • Mixed month across asset markets; some improvement in the growth outlook

  • UST 5y-30y curve steepens; IG credit spreads tighten

  • Renminbi (CNH total return) 0.02% versus the US dollar

The portfolio targets high quality credits (average A2 rating) focused on creditor nations and countries with net foreign liabilities (NFL) less than 50% of GDP. The portfolio’s GCC holdings continued to perform well: Abu Dhabi, Qatar and Saudi Arabia in particular are benefiting from greater index inclusion, strong creditor profiles/NFA positions and compelling valuations and together contributed 48bps to performance. The holding in Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline 4.6% 2047, rated AA by S&P and Fitch, was one of the top contributors to performance: with a yield of 4.18% and trading ~4.4 credit notches cheap on our models we still see further upside. Saudi Arabia and Russia, as key oil producers, also benefited from the stronger oil price and the US announcing an end to waivers on Iran oil imports: the Fund’s Russian holdings contributed 12bps to performance.

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RBF UCITS Monthly - March 2019

  • The Fund’s IDUSD class gained 1.66% (net of fees)

  • As expected, the Fed left the Fed funds target range unchanged

  • USTs rally on the back of a dovish Fed

  • Renminbi slightly weaker (-0.08% CNH total return) versus the US dollar

We continue to position in hard currency Eurobonds with a 100% renminbi currency overlay to give an A2 rated portfolio with a gross redemption yield of 3.94%. The portfolio’s UST and GCC bond holdings were the main contributors to performance this month; the renminbi position was a negligible contributor to performance but this is against a backdrop of some continued strength in the US dollar.  The UST positions added 64bps to performance helped by a more dovish Fed and the portfolio targeting the longer end of the curve.

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RBF UCITS Monthly - February 2019

  • Fund’s IDUSD class gained 0.42% (net of fees)

  • US-China trade talks continue; optimism for breakthrough

  • Fed continues to emphasise a patient and flexible approach

  • Renminbi gained 0.29% versus the US dollar

We continue to position in hard currency Eurobonds with a 100% renminbi currency overlay to give an A2 rated portfolio with a gross redemption yield of 4.08%.

Moody’s upgraded the Russian sovereign to investment grade taking the LT foreign currency rating to Baa3 (stable outlook) from Ba1 (positive outlook) putting the rating in line with S&P and Fitch at BBB-. Moody’s note the improved external position and that ‘the impact of likely new sanctions -- which is the most likely source of such a shock in the coming months -- could, in the rating agency's view, be contained without material damage to the country's credit profile.’ The Fund has no Russian sovereign holdings but its quasi-sovereign holdings in Gazprom and RZD were upgraded to Baa2 due to an increase in the country ceiling. The initial market reaction was relatively muted likely reflecting that the holdings have performed well YTD and the sovereign was already priced as investment grade. Plus, the risk of further sanctions remains.  More notably, the upgrades had the positive effect of increasing the portfolio’s weighted average rating to A2 and the Russian holdings are an important contributor to the portfolio yield.

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RBF UCITS Monthly - January 2019

  • The Fund’s IDUSD class gained 4.56% (net of fees)

  • Optimism builds ahead of further US-China trade talks

  • Fed leaves interest rates unchanged and emphasises a patient and flexible approach

  • US Treasuries rallied helped by a dovish Fed; IG credit spreads tighten

  • Renminbi appreciated 2.67% versus the US dollar

The Fund’s holdings in Abu Dhabi, Mexico and Qatar were the main positive contributors to performance. Greater index inclusion continues to build investor interest in and attract flows into the GCC region: For example, JP Morgan is to include Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE to its Global Diversified Emerging Market Bond Index (EMBI-GD) in phases from January 31 2019. The Fund’s positions in Abu Dhabi, Qatar and Saudi Arabia contributed 149bps to performance. The Omani positions also bounced back from a rating downgrade in December to contribute 24bps to performance.

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RBF UCITS Monthly - December 2018

  • The Fund’s ID USD class gained 2.93% (net of fees)

  • As expected, the Fed raised rates 25 basis points

  • USTs rally into year end and the yield curve flattened

  • Renminbi (CNH) gained 1.16% versus the US dollar

The Fund’s renminbi currency position was one of the main contributors to performance along with the UST position (the latter contributed 60 bps) reflecting a more dovish outlook for US interest rates and a 90 day trade truce between the US and China.

The Fund’s positions in Abu Dhabi, Qatar and Saudi Arabia contributed 84 bps helped by their robust credit profiles/ratings and attractive valuations but also greater investor focus with index inclusion. For example, JP Morgan is to include Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE to its Global Diversified Emerging Market Bond Index (EMBI-GD) in phases from January 31 2019.  This is expected to lead to a significant increase in demand for sovereign bond issues: the IMF Middle East Regional Outlook for November cites estimates that ‘passive investment by index-tracking funds could amount to $30 to $45bn of new demand’.

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RBF UCITS Monthly - November 2018

  • The Fund’s IDUSD class gained 0.29% (net of fees)

  • Signs global growth is slowing

  • USTs helped by Powell’s more dovish comments

  • Renminbi appreciated vs the US dollar

November was another volatile month across asset markets, notably for oil with the Brent crude price falling 22.2% to end the month at USD 58.71/bbl. Key events over the month included the US midterm election results, Brexit, Italy’s ongoing budget saga, continued US-China trade tensions, Jerome Powell’s speech along with the FOMC November minutes. Signs that global growth momentum is slowing were evident in a number of data points and the OECD revised down its global growth forecast for 2019 to 3.5% from 3.7%.

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RBF UCITS Monthly - October 2018

  • The Fund’s ID USD class fell 2.40% (net of fees)

  • Volatile month across asset markets

  • Treasuries under pressure but helped by flight to safety

  • Renminbi under pressure but US dollar is strong; DXY index gained 2.1%

October proved a volatile month across asset markets, particularly equities with the S&P ending the month 6.9% lower and the VIX index of volatility moving into the upper part of its recent trading range. Global markets are grappling with a range of issues such as growth peaking against a backdrop of central banks tightening policy: the IMF downgraded its global growth forecast citing US-China trade tensions. Treasuries started the month on the back-foot as Jerome Powell’s comment that rates ‘may go past neutral’ unsettled investors. This was also discussed in the Fed minutes for September but was tempered by an emphasis on ‘gradual increases in the target range’.

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RBF UCITS Monthly - September 2018

The Fund’s ID USD class fell 0.86% (net of fees)

As expected, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points; USTs under pressure

US-China trade tensions continued to weigh on sentiment

Middle East holdings perform well

Trade tensions remained a market focus as the US imposed a 10% tariff on a further USD200bn of Chinese goods until the end of 2018, rising to 25% thereafter.  Moreover, the White House threatened to impose tariffs on a further USD267bn of goods if the Chinese retaliated. China responded imposing tariffs on USD60bn of goods. Li Keqiang, the Chinese Premier, stated in response to the US tariffs: ‘Recent fluctuations in the renminbi exchange rate have been seen as an intentional measure, but that isn’t true,’ and that ‘One-way devaluation will do more harm than good to China’s economy. China will by no means stimulate exports by devaluing the yuan.’  The offshore renminbi (CNH) ended the month down 0.44% (spot basis).

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RBF UCITS Monthly - August 2018

  • The Fund’s ID USD class fell 0.17% (net of fees)

  • As expected, the Fed left rates unchanged; UST curve flattened

  • US-China trade tensions continue pressuring renminbi

  • Turkey debacle highlights the vulnerability of debtor nations

  • Middle East holdings resilient

Tariffs remained an important market theme: encouragingly Mexico and the US were able to reach a preliminary bilateral trade agreement that could replace NAFTA. Elsewhere, relations seemed more fractious with continued tariff/sanction escalation. The US imposed sanctions on Iran, ratcheted up tariffs on China as a further USD16bn of tariffs kicked in with threats of a further USD200bn. Added to this, the US imposed additional sanctions on Russia. Meanwhile, the US-Turkey spat continued to escalate with Trump imposing sanctions and then doubling the steel and aluminium tariffs as relations deteriorated. This, coupled with a lack of confidence in Turkey’s economic policy, a backdrop of the Fed tightening and reining in US dollar liquidity, created a perfect storm for the collapse of the Turkish Lira.

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RBF UCITS Monthly - July 2018

  • Renminbi came under pressure following Trump’s Trade Tariffs
  • China unleashed a raft of measures to counter the potential ill effects of the Trump Trade Wars
  • Holdings in the Middle East outperformed in July
  • “China doesn't want to boost its exports through competitive devaluation…”
  • Fed warns of trade-related uncertainty

A rollercoaster month saw the renminbi come under pressure following the Trump trade tariffs and  increased  aggressive  rhetoric  from  the  White  House;  the  offshore  currency  fell  2.18% against the dollar. Meanwhile the yield on the benchmark UST 10-year was up 10bps, at 2.96%. During the month the UST curve flattening did cause some concern amongst Fed members, who warned of yield curve inversion, however, we believe we are still some way from that being a huge threat. US Q2’18 GDP at 4.1% was largely overshadowed by the fall in some US tech sector names and the dollar was only marginally higher in July. 

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RBF UCITS Monthly - June 2018

  • UST curve continued to flatten in June
  • Global trade tensions mounted and the US faced retaliation
  • China cut RRR, as expected, following growing trade tensions
  • Offshore renminbi up 0.25% ytd, in total return terms
  • Protectionism remains the largest risk to global growth

The yield on the 10-year UST was marginally unchanged in June, although the curve flattened; the 2s30s spread tightened to 2007 levels. Meanwhile the dollar retained its upward momentum. Elsewhere, Brent rallied after the OPEC meeting resulted in a smaller-than-expected increase to nominal output; closing just below $80pb. Trade tensions mounted as the Trump-administration announced a review of further trade and investment policies; with the likes of China, EU as well as neighbouring Canada and Mexico retaliating. The US tariff deadline on China goods and services will be announced on July, 6. Meanwhile, the Trump-Kim summit in Singapore, appeared to go through without a hitch; although nothing concrete was announced; there was some talk of denuclearisation and subsequent US and China sanction easing. Another key event was the FOMC meeting where, as largely priced in, the Fed hiked rates by 25bps, to 1.75%-2.00%. There was a fairly muted market response following the end of a relatively more hawkish FOMC meeting and China surprised some market players by refraining from increasing its repo rate in response to the Fed hike; the PBoC appears unfazed by the narrowing interest rate differential.

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RBF UCITS Monthly - May 2018

  • The Fund’s ID USD Class fell -0.57%
  • Geopolitical events, trade tensions and Italy’s political upheaval were main highlights
  • Renminbi up 3.43% ytd, in total return terms
  • UST rally supported performance; Qatar bonds underperformed
  • Protectionism is the largest risk to global growth

The main highlights last month were the ongoing geopolitical events between the US and North Korea, and the US’s withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal. However, Italian politics stole the show towards the end of the month, only to be overshadowed by the US’s tariff announcements in the final week of May. 

Markets therefore had an interesting month, the yield on the 10-year UST, for example, spiked above 3%, following increased inflation expectation off the back of a spike in oil prices (Brent gained ~4.5% to close above $77pb). Despite the bumper UST issuance, the long-end of the curve regained some composure (eventually the 10 year settling at 2.86%, 10bps lower on the month), and the curve continued to flatten to 2007 levels; the Fed’s Bullard warned “the yield curve inversion is getting close to crunch time” adding it “would be a bearish signal for the US economy if that happens”. Meanwhile, the DXY (dollar) Index gained 2.33% and the offshore Chinese renminbi fell 1.58% against the greenback; however, remains one of the few currencies which has appreciated against the dollar so far this year, up 3.43% in total return terms. 

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RBF UCITS Monthly - April 2018

  • The Fund’s ID USD class fell 2.47%
  • Geopolitical concerns ease following conciliatory trade tones from US and China
  • USTs sold-off on renewed inflation concerns
  • Offshore renminbi up 4.71% year to date, in total return terms
  • UST curve could continue to flatten and eventually invert

Geopolitical concerns eased with more conciliatory tones from China and the US officials, and the unofficial announcement of a meeting in China in May to discuss trade tariffs. Suggestions of North Korea’s denuclearisation following the historic Korean Summit also supported the risk-on sentiment towards the end of the month. Bumper Treasury issuance, a spike in oil prices and broadly robust US economic data prints led to renewed US inflation expectations and the yield on the 10-year US Treasury spike above the 3% psychological level, eventually closing 21bps higher at 2.95% over the month. Interestingly, the UST curve did flatten during the month and the spread between the 2s10s, 5s30s and 2s30s remained at decade lows. Meanwhile, the dollar gained momentum rising over 2% last month, and as we mentioned oil spiked higher, with Brent closing 16.7% higher, above $75pb. 

Although the offshore renminbi fell 0.64% against the dollar over the month, it was one of the better performing currencies against the stronger dollar and remains up 4.71% year to date in total return terms. China March activity data surprised to the upside and growth was in-line with market expectations at 6.8% yoy. Domestic growth was a key driver of expansion in the first quarter this year suggesting the economic model transformation is underway, and the economy less reliant on external growth; positive news in the face of trade tensions. Also of interest was the PBoC’s 100bps RRR cut for certain banks. We do not see this as a change to the current prudent and neutral policy stance, rather an opening up of interbank liquidity and part of China’s continued drive of interest rate marketisation reforms; as highlighted by the central bank’s Governor Yi Gang at the Boao Forum.

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RBF UCITS Monthly - March 2018

  • The Fund’s ID USD class was up 1.07%; up 1.65% ytd
  • Concerns over trade war shakes asset markets
  • UST curve flattens due to material supply at short-end
  • Offshore renminbi (CNH) gains ~1% against dollar in March; up 4% ytd
  • New Chair Powell says Fed will remain flexible and gradual in normalising

A rollercoaster March ended what was a very uneasy quarter across asset classes. Markets appeared the least bit concerned about the Fed’s well publicised and priced-in 25bps hike, to 1.50%-1.75%, with focus shifting to what newswires referred to as the beginnings of a trade war. Mr Trump’s introduction of “flexible” 25% steel and 10% aluminium tariffs, followed by attacks on China’s alleged IP infringement and announcement of USD 50bn worth of tariffs on Chinese imports appeared to shake markets. This coupled with the negative performance across the US tech sector saw equity markets tumble over the month with the S&P Index closing in negative territory year-to-date. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year UST fell 12bps to 2.74%, having traded as high as 2.92% intra-month. Incidentally the UST curve flattened, the spread between the 2- and 10-years fell to fresh 10-year lows; with the bulk of UST issuance at the shorter-end of the curve, we may see further flattening. The dollar could not hold on to its strong start; the DXY Index tumbled 0.71%, falling below the 90 level, which supported the CNH ~1% appreciation. Brent crude traded 6.83% higher in March, closing above $70pb following the appointment of John Bolton as US national security advisor; sanction tensions with Iran could be resurrected.

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RBF UCITS Monthly - February 2018

  •  The Fund’s ID USD class was down 2.12%
  •  Risk-off sentiment saw all asset classes come under pressure in February
  •  S&P upgrade Russia’s long-term rating to investment grade
  •  Inflation and growth upside risks may be overhyped

A difficult February witnessed further erratic moves across asset markets. More hawkish central bank tones, upside risks to inflation and global growth, and a huge amount of UST issuance did little to calm rising yields. The yield on the 10-year UST for example jumped 16bps to 2.86%, while the 30-year sold-off 19bps to 3.13%. Stock markets also struggled to maintain their upward momentum, and the dollar (DXY Index) finally found its feet mid-month to close 1.66% higher, however, still down year-to-date.

In terms of US inflation ‘hysteria’, we had expected a bounce at the beginning of the year, and still remain of the view that it is a short-term theme as there are several indicators (such as vehicle sales and mortgage delinquencies, for example), which paint a much more pessimistic view of the economy. However, the market has clearly reacted more than we had expected. So, a difficult month for our long-only portfolios but we still believe that this is an inflationary blip, not a constant move higher in prices. We continue to monitor the situation daily.

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RBF UCITS Monthly - January 2018

  • The Fund’s ID USD class was up 2.75% in January
  • Renminbi rallied 3.41% against dollar
  • Russian quasi-sovereign positions remained resilient; no further US sanctions
  • New Fed Chair Powell expected to follow in Yellen’s gradual hike footsteps

Markets appeared to have woken up from their holiday slumber in an erratic mood last month as all manner of indiscriminate asset class moves were witnessed. There were a number of factors which lead to the sell-off in USTs including: concerns of increased sovereign supply, knee-jerk reactions to the BOJ ‘stealth-taper’ and ECB’s more hawkish outlook (although the message still seems somewhat mixed). The yield on the 10-year benchmark rose 30bps, to 2.71%. Meanwhile, the dollar suffered another relentless fall, which helped the offshore renminbi’s 3.41% spot appreciation against the greenback; to its strongest level since the devaluation in August 2015. Brent also enjoyed a bounce last month, gaining 3.26%. Elsewhere, equity markets witnessed a defensive tone towards the end of the month, with all three major US indices tumbling off all-time highs and the VIX (volatility) Index witnessed a spike higher.

China data also surprised to the upside, with growth for 2017 released at 6.9%; the first year of acceleration in growth since 2010. With growth outperforming and SOE debt-to-asset ratios falling, policymakers can push forth with their deleveraging and de-risking drive, and supply-side reform. Elsewhere, the FOMC meeting was pretty uneventful, as expected, although erring on the hawkish side, following a pick-up in inflation; although it was noted that inflation remains soft and is expected to pick up in the medium-term.

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RBF UCITS Monthly - December 2017

• The Fund’s ID USD Class gained 2.04% in December, up 16.19% for the year
• US Fed hikes interest rate by 25bps to 1.25%-1.50%
• Offshore renminbi (CNH) up 1.59% versus USD in December, and +7.09% ytd in spot terms
• An extra 4.70% was added to returns from the carry of buying CNH forward
• China looks for quality growth over pace of expansion

The Fund performed well in December, the ID USD Class gained 2.04%; performance for the year was +16.19%. 

The Fed’s well publicised rate hike did little to upset markets last month. The bigger news, however, was the passing of the US tax bill; where corporation tax was sliced to a permanent 21% (from 35%) and a number of less permanent tax breaks for individuals were introduced. There is no doubt, however, that this debt-financed tax overhaul will lead to an increase in the country's already huge budget deficit; so it will be interesting to see if a predicted spike in growth, forecast to be 2.5% in 2018, would help counter the ~USD1.5tn borrowing over the next 10 years. US Treasuries sold-off after the news broke, eventually closing the month relatively unchanged at 2.406%. Also of interest was the US Treasury yield curve flattening, which saw the spread between the 2-year and 10-year benchmarks fall to decade lows during the month, and the spread between the 5s30s tightened to 10-year lows on the penultimate trading day. Meanwhile, the dollar retreated further, with the DXY Index falling ~1% in December; closing the year almost 10% lower.

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