RBF UCITS Monthly - September 2016

•The Fed held rates leaving door open for a December hike
• BoJ moved to steepen the JGB curve
• OPEC production cut “agreement”; oil rallied
• Russian quasi-sovereign bonds outperform
• Global growth momentum is slowing; could be time to deploy fiscal tools

September witnessed a rollercoaster month as asset markets were once again on tenterhooks, awaiting central bank monetary policy announcements; particularly from the BoJ and Fed. As we had expected the BoJ moved to steepen the JGB curve, by launching 'QQE with Yield Curve Control', or Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing with 10-year yield cap at 0%, and the Fed maintained the status quo; leaving a hike in December on the table. The futures market appeared confused with all the mixed FOMC member rhetoric throughout the month, finally ending the month pricing in a 59.3% chance of a hike in December. The Fed’s median forward guidance was revised down to two rate rises, from three, in 2017.

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