RBF UCITS Monthly - September 2017

  • The Fund’s USD ID Class was down 1.41% in September; up 13.01% year to date
  • Fed held rates, but more hawkish rhetoric insinuates a further rate hike in December
  • China data remains resilient; growth expected within target
  • Russia's long-term debt outlook upgraded to positive by Fitch
  • Tax reform and subsequent effect on debt ceiling will be monitored closely

A mixed month across asset markets was once again driven by geopolitics and central bank rhetoric. Fed Chair Yellen’s seemingly hawkish tones drove a sell-off in UST yields; this was further compounded by the proposed ‘revolutionary’ US tax plan. What concerns us is the tax-plan’s eventual effect on the debt ceiling; we expect to hear more on this by year-end. Nonetheless, the yield on the 10-year UST was up 22bps and USD gained momentum; the DXY Index closed the month 0.44% higher. 

Meanwhile, the Fed held rates at 1%-1.25%, we heard further mixed messages from Fed members with those in acceptance of lowly inflation calling for further hikes, while others remained concerned of hiking too quickly with lacklustre price pressures. The futures market, however, received a wake-up call after Yellen’s address, where she reiterated that a December hike is clearly a possibility. Gold unsurprisingly nosedived in September; meanwhile Brent rallied 7.48%. 

Full PDF