The Daily Update - 100 days of Trump

This weekend marks 100 days of the Trump presidency, or as the latest Simpsons parody referenced it “we are 6.8% of the way home”. Often considered an important period for getting things done before election goodwill and hype fade, and campaigning for midterms begins to distract concerned politicians. But perhaps this expectation is exaggerated, especially when held up to standard Franklin D Roosevelt set in pushing through his ‘New Deal’ in the midst of the Great Depression and strong opposition from Republicans and corporations. Also the increasing challenge of getting hundreds of nominations confirmed by the Senate, especially with the less experienced team Trump is fielding, makes substantive progress difficult in these early days; Trump still only has 25 of 58 senior government positions confirmed to date. Nevertheless it’s important that the nation has a clearer picture of where the Government is heading in the next four years and that groundwork is laid for systematically driving policy legislation through, what is currently, a majority Republican House and Senate.

Importantly however Trump’s first three months in office have fallen far short, not only of predecessors’ achievements, but of his own campaign’s ‘100-day action plan to Make America Great Again’. Measuring the Administration’s performance against its own campaign promises and benchmark of 28 goals is perhaps a fairer comparison. His broader goals were as follows with a score of how many of each he has thus far fulfilled: clean up the corruption in Washington (2/6), protect American workers (3/7), restore security and the constitutional rule of law (1/5). Moreover of the 10 ‘broader legislative measures [to] fight for their passage within the first 100 days’ only one has been introduced with three others seeing slight progress. This is a total score of 6/28, just over a 20% success rate (that is if one is generous enough to rate each goal’s achievement equally).

The only broader legislation that was introduced, to ‘Repeal and Replace Obamacare Act’, embarrassingly didn’t even make it to a vote. This failure in particular might be considered the largest setback, as it is effectively a cornerstone for many of his other deficit increasing legislative aspirations, including importantly his ‘Middle Class Tax Relief and Simplification Act’. These proposals which we started hearing about yesterday will face even tougher opposition from a large section of Republicans unwilling to allow further tax cutting or debt fuelled spending, without the counterbalance of a cut in government healthcare spending and apparent inefficiencies.

Reasons for the unmet goals are varied. Some like opposing ‘sanctuary cities’ and suspending ‘immigration from terror-prone regions’ have been challenged by the courts. Other promises Trump has backtracked on, like ‘labelling China a currency manipulator’, and today confirming that the US would not withdraw from NAFTA but push Mexico and Canada harder for better trading terms: a welcome move.

The Administration still has a further nine months to push through some significant accomplishments in their first year and one can expect more of these original policy goals will be met by then. But the most significant ones relating to financial market seem increasingly beyond reach. Anecdotally the 29th April, Trump’s 100th day, is also the deadline for Congress and Trump to agree on funding measures. On the off chance this isn’t achieved a Government shutdown would only add to the embarrassment of an Administration clearly still struggling to find its pace.

Please read this important information before proceeding. It contains legal and regulatory notices relevant to the information on this site.

This website provides information about Stratton Street Capital LLP ("Stratton Street"). Stratton Street is authorised and regulated by the UK's Financial Conduct Authority. The content of this website has been prepared by Stratton Street from its records and is believed to be accurate but we do not accept any liability or responsibility in respect of the information of any views expressed herein. The information, material and content provided in the pages of this website may be changed at any time by us. Information on this website may be out of date and may not be updated or removed.

The website is provided for the main purpose of providing generic information on Stratton Street and on our investment philosophy for the use of financial professionals in the United Kingdom that qualify as Professional Clients or Eligible Counterparties under the rules of the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the "FCA"). The information in this website is not intended for the use of and should not be relied on by any person who would qualify as a Retail Client. Products and services referred to on this website are offered only at times when, and in jurisdictions where, they may be lawfully offered. The information on this website is not directed to any person in the United States. The provision of the information on this website does not constitute an offer to purchase securities to any person in the United States (other than a professional fiduciary acting for the account of a non-U.S person) or to any U.S. person as such term is defined under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.

The website is not intended to offer investors the opportunity to invest in any Alternative Investment Fund ("AIF") product. The AIFs managed by Stratton Street are not being marketed in the European Economic Area ("EEA") and any eligible potential investor from the EEA who wishes to obtain information on the AIFs will only be provided with materials upon receipt by Stratton Street of an appropriate reverse solicitation request in accordance with the requirements of the EU Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive ("AIFMD") and national law in their home jurisdiction. By proceeding you confirm that you are not accessing this website in the context of a potential investment by an EEA investor in the AIFs managed by Stratton Street and that you have read, understood and agree to these terms.

No information contained in this website should be deemed to constitute the provision of financial, investment or other professional advice in any way. The website should not be relied upon as including sufficient information to support any investment decision. If you are in doubt as to the appropriate course of action we recommend that you consult your own independent financial adviser, stockbroker, solicitor, accountant or other professional adviser. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up. An application for any investment or service referred to on this site may only be made on the basis of the offer document, key features, prospectus or other applicable terms relating to the specific investment or service.

Where we provide hypertext links to other locations on the Internet, we do so for information purposes only. We are not responsible for the content of any other websites or pages linked to or linking to this website. We have not verified the content of any such websites. Such websites may contain products and services that are not authorised in your jurisdiction. Following links to any other websites or pages shall be at your own risk and we shall not be responsible or liable for any damages or in other way in connection with linking.

By using this site, you should be aware that we may disclose any information that we hold about you to any regulatory authority to which we are subject, or to any person legally empowered to require such information.

This website uses cookies to improve user experience, by clicking the "I Accept" button below means you consent to the use of cookies on our website.