The Daily Update - Trump Out a Three Seat Swing

Here we are at the midterm elections with all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 seats, about a third, in the Senate up for grabs. Currently the Republicans have a 235-to-193 majority in the House and a 51-to-49 hold in the Senate.

It would appear that the polls are suggesting; yes the polls remember Brexit and the last UK election, that the Democrats will flip the house with a probability up around 86% but that the Senate will be held by the Republicans with an 83% probability.

So if the Democrats win the House what would that do to the Trump administration? The House is where bills for raising revenue must originate and so they could block any Trump legislation for the next two years. It would also mean that the House could seek new enhanced investigations into the Russian influence in the last Presidential election and obtain and review Trump's tax returns.

If the Democrats also win the Senate, although the bookies say is unlikely it is just a three seat swing, then the Democrats will determine all legislation for the next two years although the President could veto any measure.

If we look at President Trump's last few trades like the NAFTA agreement renegotiation, tariffs on China and the Iran nuclear deal, a Democratic held house and/or Senate would have a say in the new NAFTA deal, could challenge Trump about tariffs in the name of national security and could vote to restore aid to Iran and choose not to impose sanctions.

The most dramatic thing a democrat held Congress could do is to try and impeach Trump and kick him out of Twitter, all of which may please Mr Powell, Chair of the Fed.

Happy voting.

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