The Daily Update - She Lives to Fight Another Day

Yesterday the UK Conservative party had its very own remain/leave vote of confidence in Theresa May, this time voting for their leader to remain by a margin of 200 to 117. However Theresa May later announced she would leave (before the next general election that is). As you can imagine, the tabloid headline writers had a field day, particular highlights being ‘Time to call it a May’ and ‘It’s lame duck for Christmas’. Under the Conservative party 1922 Committee rules, the prime minister needed 158 votes to see off the leadership challenge, and in doing so has secured her position for the next 12 months, unless she decides to resign that is. Johnson 4/1 with Raab and Javid close behind for those who are interested.

So what now? Losing the vote has maybe weakened the hard-line Brexiteers, but not by much. If she had won by a bigger margin then she might have been able to silence her critics a little more, however the 32% of her party that wanted her out will still be very vocal. The cancellation of the Brexit vote may have bought her some time, however the predicted scale of the defeat means she will have to push the EU hard for more movement. The UK has already been told that although there may be some movement in the wording on future relations, there is zero chance of amending the withdrawal agreement that fixes the principal terms in stone for Brexit. Her options are few. Let the sands of time march on until the UK is staring a no-deal Brexit in the face and then vote, a fresh referendum, revoking article 50, an early election with the threat of a Labour government? Talking of Labour, they have been remarkably quiet on their proposals to break the deadlock, other than to vote against the government at every opportunity. However, why should they show their hand, as in the words of Napoleon ‘Never interfere with an enemy while he’s in the process of destroying himself’?

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