每日新闻更新-美国通胀 The Daily Update – US inflation

今天早些时候美国公布了众盼已久的通胀和零售数据。通胀走高加重了债券和股市的不安,“恐慌指数”超过20,蹒跚在“恐惧区”。略高于预期的数据足以让市场相信美联储收紧货币政策的步伐将快于2017年,但不会刺激通胀恐慌。在数据公布之前,美国国债保持平稳,10年期收益率约为2.82%,30年期国债收益率约为3.11%,两者的价差都比最近的峰值下跌了约7点。

实际上,通胀超出了预期,一月份核心消费价格指数同比增长1.8%,与12月数据一致,而预期值是1.7%。零售数据出人意料地让人失望,一月份下跌了0.3%,预期会增长0.2%,12月份的销售数据也从早先预期的0.4%进行了下调修改。这造成的初步结果是30年期国债收益率略微上涨了3点,收益率为3.14%,市场对三月份加息的预期从93%增长到100%。对后续加息的预期也略有增长,认为今年至少有一次加息的可能为91%(而在今天的数据公布前,这个数值为86%)。

周二宣誓就职的美联储新任主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在首次公开评论中提出:“我们正处在利率政策和资产负债表逐步常规化的过程中,美联储将对任何危及金融稳定的风险保持警惕”。如此看来联邦基金利率的短期之路几乎是不可避免的。有评论认为2.1%的消费价格指数高于目标值2%,这不足够让人信服,也不值得焦虑,因为美联储历来更看重波动性较小的核心个人消费支出通胀数据,该数据在12月份为1.5%,远低于目标值。在3月1日公布新的个人消费支出数据之前,关键是持续关注市场反应和美联储评论。

Please read this important information before proceeding. It contains legal and regulatory notices relevant to the information on this site.

This website provides information about Stratton Street Capital LLP ("Stratton Street"). Stratton Street is authorised and regulated by the UK's Financial Conduct Authority. The content of this website has been prepared by Stratton Street from its records and is believed to be accurate but we do not accept any liability or responsibility in respect of the information of any views expressed herein. The information, material and content provided in the pages of this website may be changed at any time by us. Information on this website may be out of date and may not be updated or removed.

The website is provided for the main purpose of providing generic information on Stratton Street and on our investment philosophy for the use of financial professionals in the United Kingdom that qualify as Professional Clients or Eligible Counterparties under the rules of the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the "FCA"). The information in this website is not intended for the use of and should not be relied on by any person who would qualify as a Retail Client. Products and services referred to on this website are offered only at times when, and in jurisdictions where, they may be lawfully offered. The information on this website is not directed to any person in the United States. The provision of the information on this website does not constitute an offer to purchase securities to any person in the United States (other than a professional fiduciary acting for the account of a non-U.S person) or to any U.S. person as such term is defined under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.

The website is not intended to offer investors the opportunity to invest in any Alternative Investment Fund ("AIF") product. The AIFs managed by Stratton Street are not being marketed in the European Economic Area ("EEA") and any eligible potential investor from the EEA who wishes to obtain information on the AIFs will only be provided with materials upon receipt by Stratton Street of an appropriate reverse solicitation request in accordance with the requirements of the EU Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive ("AIFMD") and national law in their home jurisdiction. By proceeding you confirm that you are not accessing this website in the context of a potential investment by an EEA investor in the AIFs managed by Stratton Street and that you have read, understood and agree to these terms.

No information contained in this website should be deemed to constitute the provision of financial, investment or other professional advice in any way. The website should not be relied upon as including sufficient information to support any investment decision. If you are in doubt as to the appropriate course of action we recommend that you consult your own independent financial adviser, stockbroker, solicitor, accountant or other professional adviser. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up. An application for any investment or service referred to on this site may only be made on the basis of the offer document, key features, prospectus or other applicable terms relating to the specific investment or service.

Where we provide hypertext links to other locations on the Internet, we do so for information purposes only. We are not responsible for the content of any other websites or pages linked to or linking to this website. We have not verified the content of any such websites. Such websites may contain products and services that are not authorised in your jurisdiction. Following links to any other websites or pages shall be at your own risk and we shall not be responsible or liable for any damages or in other way in connection with linking.

By using this site, you should be aware that we may disclose any information that we hold about you to any regulatory authority to which we are subject, or to any person legally empowered to require such information.

This website uses cookies to improve user experience, by clicking the "I Accept" button below means you consent to the use of cookies on our website.