Andrés Manuel López Obrador

The Daily Update - Third Time Lucky?

The Daily Update - Third Time Lucky?

Mexico’s tide of political fortune certainly looks to be in Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s (aka AMLO’s) favour as the country heads to the polls on 1 July for the Presidential Election. This is the third time that the hard-left candidate AMLO has run for President but this time his campaign looks to have gained sufficient traction with the voters to put him in poll position. More recent polls such as Consulta Mitofsky (excluding non-respondents) show AMLO ahead by a considerable margin at 48.1% of the vote.

The Daily Update - Mexico: NAFTA and AMLO

The Daily Update - Mexico: NAFTA and AMLO

The Mexican peso has been one of the better performing currencies against the US dollar YTD (+6.5%). Progress on the renegotiation of NAFTA has helped investor sentiment, and while agreement still needs to be reached on certain contentious issues, US Vice President Mike Pence commented at the Summit of the Americas: ‘I’ll leave this summit very hopeful that we are very close to a renegotiated Nafta’. That said, the Mexican peso has seen some selling into the end of this week perhaps as investors focus on the Mexican Presidential Election to be held on 1st July where the hard-left candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador (often referred to as AMLO) is leading in the polls.

The Daily Update - Mexico

The Mexican Government’s oil sector liberalisation programme continued with 19 deep-water blocks being successfully auctioned off in the latest January round. Shell was a prominent bidder. Pemex, Mexico’s dominant oil producer and 100% owned by the Government, was awarded 4 blocks, 2 individually. The government will receive USD535m for these blocks and Mexican officials estimate that this could bring in as much as USD93bn in investments, unquestionably a credit positive for the sovereign.

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