Net Foreign Assets (NFA)

The Daily Update - EM-Motions Spread To South Africa

The Daily Update - EM-Motions Spread To South Africa

Bad things come in threes, so they say, and this week began with expectations of (at least) a third Emerging Market domino: following Turkey’s and Argentina’s continued fall from grace. Right on schedule, South Africa stepped up, entering its first recession in nine years, then the following day bolstering the disappointment with factory output data down the most in over two years. The slowdown in the agricultural sector was a major driver of the economic weakness, but political and policy uncertainty were also major unquantifiable factors.

The Daily Update - Thailand's 'Progressive Prosperity'

In its article titled “Riding the Wave - An East Asian Miracle for the 21st Century”, the World Bank upgraded Thailand to a “progressive prosperity” country, having “eliminated income poverty while substantially increasing the share of middle-class households.” The article also goes on to highlight that “A wave of prosperity has spread across East Asia. Today, three of five people can be considered economically secure in that they face a very low risk of falling into poverty. A solid middle class has emerged in most countries.” Meanwhile, Thailand's economy has expanded at its fastest pace since the first quarter of 2013, with Q3’17 GDP at 4.3% yoy, up from 3.7% yoy; a pick-up in exports and tourism supported growth.

The Daily Update - Sterling CNY

Market action this morning was focussed on the friendless pound as it hit 31 year lows against the US dollar with cable plummeting through 1.28, a technical level opening up for a possible further drop to 1.22. Against the euro, sterling is close to visiting the lows of 2011 with some market makers expecting an attempt on 0.90 and the all-time low for the pound around 0.95 last seen in 2009.

Fears for a tough Brexit are the reason with some big tickets going through the market. But in reality sterling has been weakening since mid-2015 and is now down 23% against the euro and 19% against the US dollar, as measured by the spot rate over that period.

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