non farm payrolls

The Daily Update - NFPR

Today’s October non-farm payroll release showed 261,000 jobs added which was below expectations (for a post hurricane rebound) of 313,000 jobs created. The prior month’s reading was revised up to 18,000 from -33,000 and the two month net revision was +90,000. The unemployment rate edged lower to 4.1% from September’s reading of 4.2% although the participation rate fell to 62.7% from 63.1%. The average hourly earnings figure was below expectations growing 2.4% yoy and down from last month’s reading of 2.9% yoy: this follows on from a still relatively muted Q3 employment cost index report which was in line with expectations and registered a quarterly increase of 0.7%.

The Daily Update - NFPR

The August non-farm payroll report has once again disappointed having done so for the past 6 consecutive years (during the month of August), and today only 156,000 jobs were added which was below expectations of 180,000 jobs created.  Expectations had perhaps built for a stronger report on the back of the ADP employment estimate earlier in the week which came in well ahead of expectations (of 185,000 jobs) registering 237,000 jobs added.  August has proved a notoriously difficult month to predict and in the past six years the initial estimate has then ended being revised upwards.

The Daily Update - NFPR

Today’s July non-farm payroll release showed 209,000 jobs added which was above expectations of 180,000 jobs created and the prior month’s reading was revised up by 9,000 jobs to 231,000. The unemployment rate edged lower to 4.3% from June’s reading of 4.4% although the participation rate edged higher to 62.9% from 62.8%. Average hourly earnings grew 2.5% yoy in line with last month’s reading of 2.5% yoy: this follows on from a muted Q2 employment cost index report which registered a 0.5% quarterly gain and a year on year rate of 2.4%.

The Daily Update - NFPR

Today’s April non-farm payroll release showed 211,000 jobs added which was above expectations of 190,000 jobs created and the prior month’s reading was revised down by 19,000 jobs to 79,000. The unemployment rate edged lower to 4.4% from March’s reading of 4.5% as did the participation rate to 62.9% from 63%. After the stronger than expected Q1 employment cost index data (3.2% quarterly annualised or 2.4% yoy), an average hourly earnings figure of 2.5% yoy struck a happy medium supporting an improving but not excessively hot labour market.

The Daily Update - NFPR

Today’s February non-farm payroll release showed 235,000 jobs added which was above expectations of 200,000 jobs created and the prior month’s reading was revised up by 11,000 jobs to 238,000.  The construction sector, helped by the mild winter weather, saw strong job gains of 58,000, the largest gain since March 2007; while the manufacturing sector saw robust gains at 28,000 jobs, the most since August 2013.  The unemployment rate edged lower to 4.7% from January’s reading of 4.8% although the participation rate edged higher to 63 percent as more people entering the workforce found jobs.

The Daily Update - NFPR

Today’s January non-farm payroll release showed 227,000 jobs added which was above expectations of 180,000 jobs created although the prior month’s reading was revised up by only 1,000 jobs to 157,000.  The unemployment rate edged higher to 4.8% from December’s reading of 4.7% along with the participation rate which increased to 62.9%.  Importantly, average hourly earnings grew 2.5% yoy, down from the previous month’s figure of 2.9% yoy, and below expectations of 2.8% yoy.

The Daily Update - NFPR

Today’s October non-farm payroll release showed 161,000 jobs added which was below expectations of 175,000 jobs added.  The prior month’s reading of 156,000 jobs added was revised up to +191,000.  The unemployment rate edged lower to 4.9% from September’s reading of 5% although the participation rate also fell to 62.8%.  Average hourly earnings came in above expectations at 2.8% yoy up from 2.6% yoy in September.

The Daily Update - NFPR and growth

September’s non-farm payroll released today showed 156k jobs added which was below expectations of +172k. The prior month’s reading of +151k was revised to +167k. The unemployment rate went up to 5% (versus expectations for 4.9%) and average hourly earnings came in at 2.6%yoy, from of 2.4%yoy in August.

For us, the key point is that US growth remains patchy and weak; the IMF cut its US growth forecast for 2016 to 1.6% from 2.2% and downgraded 2017 to 2.2%. In fact since the GFC US growth on an annual basis has been 2.5% or above in only 2 years one of which was 2015: this paled with the more buoyant decade or so pre-GFC. While indicators such as 2Q GDP have been revised up to 1.4% on a quarterly annualised basis and the September ISMs for both manufacturing and services showed improvement indicators such as the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, a broad based indicator of 85 economic variables, fell to -0.55 in August.

The Daily Update - NFPR

August is a notorious month for the market overestimating the rate of jobs growth with the miss ranging from 11,000 to 88,000 over the past five years; yet again this has proved to be the case with 151,000 jobs added against expectations of 180,000 jobs added.  The strong July figure was revised up from 255,000 to 275,000 jobs and the two month revision came in at - 1,000.  The unemployment rate was unchanged from the previous month at 4.9 percent and the participation rate was unchanged at 62.8 percent.  The average hourly earnings came in at 2.4 percent yoy, slightly below with expectations and the prior month.  Average hours worked edged lower to 34.3.

The Daily Update - NFPR

Today’s July non-farm payroll data was stronger than expectations: 255,000 jobs were added against expectations of 180,000 jobs added.  The strong June figure was revised up from 287,000 to 292,000 jobs and the two month revision came in at 18,000.  The unemployment rate was unchanged from the previous month at 4.9 percent and the participation rate edged up to 62.8 percent.  The average hourly earnings came in at 2.6 percent yoy, in line with expectations and the prior month.  Average hours worked edged higher to 34.5.

The Daily Update - Non farm payrolls

Today’s June non-farm payroll data was much stronger than expectations: 287,000 jobs were added against expectations of 180,000 jobs added.  The disappointing May figure was revised down to 11,000 jobs from 38,000 jobs added and the two monthly revision came in at -6,000.  The unemployment rate edged up to 4.9 percent and the participation rate also edged higher to 62.7 percent.  The average hourly earnings came in at 2.6 percent yoy, slightly below expectations, and up from 2.5 percent yoy the prior month.  Average hours worked was unchanged at 34.4.

The Daily Update - Non-farm payrolls

Today’s non-farm payroll data release for May recorded 38,000 jobs added which was well below expectations of 160,000 and compares with a downwardly revised 123,000 jobs added in April.  The two month payroll net revision was -59,000.  The 3 month average for job creation is now running at only 116,000 jobs.  The unemployment rate fell to 4.7 percent however the participation rate edged down to 62.6 percent.  Average hourly earnings was unchanged at 2.5 percent yoy against expectations of a 2.5 percent yoy increase and average hours worked edged down to 34.4 from 34.5 the prior month.

Wealthy Nations Daily Update - Non Farm Payrolls

Today's non-farm payroll data showed another month of solid job gains: the US economy added 215,000 jobs in March which was ahead of expectations of 205,000 jobs created.  The 2 month net revision was only -1,000 jobs.  Accompanying data releases also supported an improving labour market: the unemployment rate edged up to 5% but the participation rate also increased to 63% from the prior month’s reading of 62.9%.  Average hourly earnings figure edged up to 2.3% yoy from the prior reading of 2.2% while average hours worked was unchanged from the prior month’s figure of 34.4 hours.

Wealthy Nations Daily Update - Non-Farm Payrolls

The employment data remains one of the strongest data points on the US economy and today’s non-farm payroll data was no exception showing 242,000 jobs added in February which exceeded expectations of 195,000 jobs added.  The prior figure was revised up from 151,000 jobs to 172,000 jobs.  The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.9 percent and the labour force participation rate increased to 62.9 percent from 62.7 percent in January.  On a weaker note, average hourly earnings came in below expectations at 2.2 percent yoy which was down from the prior month’s reading of 2.5 percent yoy and average hours worked edged back to 34.4 from 34.6 in January.

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