Each week, Stratton Street produces a weekly update (full text here) which refers to data which is made available here in chart form.
CHARTS REFERRED TO IN THE WEEKLY OF 6TH June 2016

US Industrial Production (yoy)
US Industrial Production has been negative on an annual basis on 20 occasions since the 1920's and in 17 of those the US was already in recession!

US Participation Rate
The decline in the participation rate is likely due to an ageing population as older people choose not to work.
CHARTS REFERRED TO IN THE WEEKLY OF 11TH APRIL 2016
CHARTS REFERRED TO IN THE WEEKLY OF 29th MARCH 2016
CHARTS REFERRED TO IN THE WEEKLY OF 21st march 2016
Net Foreign Asset Scores 2016 - Creditors (click image for greater detail)
SOURCE: STRATTON STREET CAPITAL LLP, PHILIP R LANE AND GIAN MARIA MILESI-FERRITTI (2007) "THE EXTERNAL WEALTH OF NATIONS MARK II: REVISED AND EXTENDED ESTIMATES OF FOREIGN ASSETS AND LIABILITIES, 1970 - 2004", JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS 73, NOVEMBER,223-250.
Net Foreign Assets 2016 - Debtors (click image for greater detail)
SOURCE: stratton street capital llp, PHILIP R LANE and Gian Maria Milesi-ferritti (2007) "the external wealth of nations mark ii: revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970 - 2004", journal of international economics 73, november,223-250.
CHARTS REFERRED TO IN THE WEEKLY OF 29TH FEBRUARY 2016

Global Growth
We are closely watch global purchasing manager survey's for signs of further weakness, or ortherwise.

Chinese Imports
The Chinese set out their plan to shift from an export led economy to a more domestic oriented one as long ago as 2010. The link to changes in global growth seem inescapable.
Source: Bloomberg
CHARTS REFERRED TO IN THE WEEKLY OF 15TH FEBRUARY 2016

Largest Current Account Surpluses
The largest current account surpluses in the world include countries that have attempted to weaken their exchange rates. Current account surpluses for Germany at 8% of GDP and Holland, 9.2% of GDP are excessive, yet noone seems to either notice or care!
CHARTS REFERRED TO IN THE WEEKLY OF 8th FEBRUARY 2016

US High Yield
Spreads back above 800 basis points once again.
CHARTS REFERRED TO IN THE WEEKLY OF 1ST FEBRUARY 2016

Velocity in US
Since the introduction of QE in 2008, velocity of money has collapsed, suggesting that individuals are saving, not spending.
charts referred to in the weekly of 25th january 2016

Poland's net foreign liabilities
Poland's net foreign liabilities were approaching 100% of GDP in 2009.

NFA & Currencies
There is substantial academic evidence that countries with net foreign liabilities have weak currencies relative to those with net foreign assets.

Poland & Australia
Both countries have poor NFA positions.
CHarts referred to in the weekly of 18th january 2016

ATLANTA FED GDP NOW
The latest reading for Q4 2015 has fallen to just 0.6.

EMPIRE MANUFACTURING IDEX
The latest reading of -19.4 in a declining growth period has not been recorded since the last recession which started in December 2007. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Charts referred to in the weekly of 11th january 2016
Global Growth Model Shows Weakness
Although we are not yet ready to predict either a US or global recession, the scope for higher US rates appears to be quite limited.

The short end lost money
The best place to be on an duration weighted basis was at the long end. Investors made losses at the short end.

Short dated bonds lost money
Short dated bonds lost investors money with the long end making neither gains or losses.

The period most relevant to today
In the 04-06 tightening cycle, investors lost money for the third time (out of 3!) by investing in the short end. Investors in the long end made money. We expect yield curves to flatten in this cycle too.

St Louis Fed
The latest US ISM reading of 48.2 is BELOW the level where the US last entered recession. Only robust services are preventing us from predicting a US recession at this stage.
This week's Daily Updates
Finally, on 8th February Moody’s upgraded its Russian sovereign rating to investment grade. The move takes the LT foreign currency rating to Baa3 (stable outlook) from Ba1 (positive outlook) and moves the rating in line with S&P who upgraded the rating in February last year to BBB- and Fitch who has maintained an investment grade rating (currently BBB-) throughout the 2014 sanctions and lower oil price period. Moody’s stated the main driver for the upgrade ‘is Moody's conclusion that the sovereign's vulnerability to such shocks has indeed materially diminished and no longer constrains the rating to sub-investment grade.
In my early days as a fund manager markets were only concerned with one data point; the trade balance. That was a very long time ago, and these days markets focus intently on payrolls and the unemployment rate which on the face of it suggest continuing strength in the US economy. However, it’s worth noting that the US unemployment rate hit a cyclical low of 4.4% in May 2007 and yet the US entered recession in December, just seven months later. That example alone should highlight that payroll watching is not really as insightful as some would have you believe.
Part II from a piece by our macro-economist Bob Gay:Should Financial Markets Celebrate Powell’s Pivot?
Two other developments might have given hawkish FOMC participants reasons to pause and reflect. For one thing, market measures of inflation expectations had declined significantly since the December meeting. This explanation, however, is not very persuasive because the Fed tends to rely on survey data on inflation expectations, which tends to be more stable than market measures that probably have been influenced by short-term developments such as the drop in oil prices.
This is part I of a commentary titled ‘Should Financial Markets Celebrate Powell’s Pivot?’ from our macroeconomist Bob Gay
At his press conference following the FOMC meeting of January 29-30, Fed Chairman Powell expressed the Board’s decision to be ‘patient’ in implementing future adjustments to its policy rate. The media immediately dubbed his statement as a ‘pivot’ away from the forced march toward policy normalisation over the past two years that steadily had raised the funds rate and had begun to shrink the Fed’s bloated balance sheet.
Those readers that have spoken with us over the recent past will know that our outlook is for the Fed to pause and that we feel there is an equal chance of a rate hike or indeed a cut as the next move in the Fed funds rate. We think the Fed will utilise their balance sheet rather than the fund's rate to add/withdraw liquidity during a period of high data dependency.