Each week, Stratton Street produces a weekly update (full text here) which refers to data which is made available here in chart form.
CHARTS REFERRED TO IN THE WEEKLY OF 6TH June 2016
US Industrial Production (yoy)
US Industrial Production has been negative on an annual basis on 20 occasions since the 1920's and in 17 of those the US was already in recession!
US Participation Rate
The decline in the participation rate is likely due to an ageing population as older people choose not to work.
CHARTS REFERRED TO IN THE WEEKLY OF 11TH APRIL 2016
CHARTS REFERRED TO IN THE WEEKLY OF 29th MARCH 2016
CHARTS REFERRED TO IN THE WEEKLY OF 21st march 2016
Net Foreign Asset Scores 2016 - Creditors (click image for greater detail)
Net Foreign Assets 2016 - Debtors (click image for greater detail)
CHARTS REFERRED TO IN THE WEEKLY OF 29TH FEBRUARY 2016
We are closely watch global purchasing manager survey's for signs of further weakness, or ortherwise.
The Chinese set out their plan to shift from an export led economy to a more domestic oriented one as long ago as 2010. The link to changes in global growth seem inescapable.
CHARTS REFERRED TO IN THE WEEKLY OF 15TH FEBRUARY 2016
Largest Current Account Surpluses
The largest current account surpluses in the world include countries that have attempted to weaken their exchange rates. Current account surpluses for Germany at 8% of GDP and Holland, 9.2% of GDP are excessive, yet noone seems to either notice or care!
CHARTS REFERRED TO IN THE WEEKLY OF 8th FEBRUARY 2016
US High Yield
Spreads back above 800 basis points once again.
CHARTS REFERRED TO IN THE WEEKLY OF 1ST FEBRUARY 2016
Velocity in US
Since the introduction of QE in 2008, velocity of money has collapsed, suggesting that individuals are saving, not spending.
charts referred to in the weekly of 25th january 2016
Poland's net foreign liabilities
Poland's net foreign liabilities were approaching 100% of GDP in 2009.
NFA & Currencies
There is substantial academic evidence that countries with net foreign liabilities have weak currencies relative to those with net foreign assets.
Poland & Australia
Both countries have poor NFA positions.
CHarts referred to in the weekly of 18th january 2016
ATLANTA FED GDP NOW
The latest reading for Q4 2015 has fallen to just 0.6.
EMPIRE MANUFACTURING IDEX
The latest reading of -19.4 in a declining growth period has not been recorded since the last recession which started in December 2007. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Charts referred to in the weekly of 11th january 2016
Global Growth Model Shows Weakness
Although we are not yet ready to predict either a US or global recession, the scope for higher US rates appears to be quite limited.
The short end lost money
The best place to be on an duration weighted basis was at the long end. Investors made losses at the short end.
Short dated bonds lost money
Short dated bonds lost investors money with the long end making neither gains or losses.
The period most relevant to today
In the 04-06 tightening cycle, investors lost money for the third time (out of 3!) by investing in the short end. Investors in the long end made money. We expect yield curves to flatten in this cycle too.
St Louis Fed
The latest US ISM reading of 48.2 is BELOW the level where the US last entered recession. Only robust services are preventing us from predicting a US recession at this stage.