The Weekly Update

The slide in equities and US Treasury yields accelerated last week; the 10-year saw yields fall 20 basis points to 2.12%: in a fifth straight week of strengthening from 2.6% in mid-April and demonstrating a strong seven-month trend from November 2018 highs above 3.2%. the S&P 500 had its fourth down week in a row, down 2.6%, and its worst since the tumult around Christmas 2018. Meanwhile, German 10-year Bund yields hit all-time lows of -0.206%: even lower than the negative yields back in mid-2016 when the US 10-year yielded 1.35%. Other negative sentiment signals this week include the Japanese yen strengthening 1% to 108.3 against the dollar, and Emerging Market spreads widening 15-20 basis points (contributing to spreads around 10% higher than at the start of the month but with yields broadly unchanged as risk-off assets rally in isolation).

Trade concerns were the major contributor to the market fear with, not only talks completely breaking down between the US and China last week, but the US threatening to impose tariffs on “all goods” out of Mexico after a group of migrants, numbering over a thousand, were caught crossing the border illegally. Tariffs will start at 5% next week rising steadily to 25% by October. Alongside the trade policy instability, China saw its manufacturing PMI drop to 49.4 as PMIs in retreat globally; further PMI data is also out in the week ahead.

On Monday numerous manufacturing PMI readings are published across the Eurozone, US and China; Tuesday sees the interest rate decision from the RBI as well as Eurozone CPI and unemployment and US factory orders; on Wednesday we have services PMIs across the Eurozone, China and (non-manufacturing) in the US along with the Fed Beige Book. Economic releases on Thursday include Germany factory orders, US trade balance and rate decisions out of the Eurozone and India; and on Friday we have the all-important Non-Farm Payrolls out of the US along with trade balances from Australia and Germany in addition to German industrial production figures.

Please read this important information before proceeding. It contains legal and regulatory notices relevant to the information on this site.

This website provides information about Stratton Street Capital LLP ("Stratton Street"). Stratton Street is authorised and regulated by the UK's Financial Conduct Authority. The content of this website has been prepared by Stratton Street from its records and is believed to be accurate but we do not accept any liability or responsibility in respect of the information of any views expressed herein. The information, material and content provided in the pages of this website may be changed at any time by us. Information on this website may be out of date and may not be updated or removed.

The website is provided for the main purpose of providing generic information on Stratton Street and on our investment philosophy for the use of financial professionals in the United Kingdom that qualify as Professional Clients or Eligible Counterparties under the rules of the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the "FCA"). The information in this website is not intended for the use of and should not be relied on by any person who would qualify as a Retail Client. Products and services referred to on this website are offered only at times when, and in jurisdictions where, they may be lawfully offered. The information on this website is not directed to any person in the United States. The provision of the information on this website does not constitute an offer to purchase securities to any person in the United States (other than a professional fiduciary acting for the account of a non-U.S person) or to any U.S. person as such term is defined under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.

The website is not intended to offer investors the opportunity to invest in any Alternative Investment Fund ("AIF") product. The AIFs managed by Stratton Street are not being marketed in the European Economic Area ("EEA") and any eligible potential investor from the EEA who wishes to obtain information on the AIFs will only be provided with materials upon receipt by Stratton Street of an appropriate reverse solicitation request in accordance with the requirements of the EU Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive ("AIFMD") and national law in their home jurisdiction. By proceeding you confirm that you are not accessing this website in the context of a potential investment by an EEA investor in the AIFs managed by Stratton Street and that you have read, understood and agree to these terms.

No information contained in this website should be deemed to constitute the provision of financial, investment or other professional advice in any way. The website should not be relied upon as including sufficient information to support any investment decision. If you are in doubt as to the appropriate course of action we recommend that you consult your own independent financial adviser, stockbroker, solicitor, accountant or other professional adviser. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up. An application for any investment or service referred to on this site may only be made on the basis of the offer document, key features, prospectus or other applicable terms relating to the specific investment or service.

Where we provide hypertext links to other locations on the Internet, we do so for information purposes only. We are not responsible for the content of any other websites or pages linked to or linking to this website. We have not verified the content of any such websites. Such websites may contain products and services that are not authorised in your jurisdiction. Following links to any other websites or pages shall be at your own risk and we shall not be responsible or liable for any damages or in other way in connection with linking.

By using this site, you should be aware that we may disclose any information that we hold about you to any regulatory authority to which we are subject, or to any person legally empowered to require such information.

This website uses cookies to improve user experience, by clicking the "I Accept" button below means you consent to the use of cookies on our website.