In 2017 the 3 countries with the biggest populations were China, 1.4bn, India 1.38bn and USA with 325m. By 2100 the top 3 will be India 1.09bn, Nigeria 791m (up from 206m in 2017) and China 732m. Russia will see its population fall from 146m, 3 years ago, to 106m in 2100 with Japan going from 128m to just 60m.
The study also predicts there will be massive shifts in the global age structure, with nearly 2.4bn individuals over 65 years globally in 2100, compared with 1.7bn under 20 years old, which the article states will underscore the need for liberal immigration policies in countries with significantly declining working age populations. There have been numerous studies trying to forecast population growth over the years usually pointing to an upward trend, however, according to Christopher Murray, who led the research ‘Continued global population growth through the century is no longer the most likely trajectory for the world's population’ adding ‘This study provides governments of all countries an opportunity to start rethinking their policies on migration, workforces and economic development to address the challenges presented by demographic change’.
Editor-in-Chief of The Lancet, Dr Richard Horton believes there is no time to lose in planning for the population changes. He states ‘This important research charts a future we need to be planning for urgently. It offers a vision for radical shifts in geopolitical power, challenges myths about immigration, and underlines the importance of protecting and strengthening the sexual and reproductive rights of women. The 21st century will see a revolution in the story of our human civilisation. Africa and the Arab World will shape our future, while Europe and Asia will recede in their influence. By the end of the century, the world will be multipolar, with India, Nigeria, China, and the US the dominant powers. This will truly be a new world, one we should be preparing for today’.
Part 1 is available via our website. Have a great weekend.