Ireland has come out in support of British Prime Minister May’s plan to sidestep a hard border cutting through the island of Ireland. Ireland want to avoid needing to enforce customs in €65bln in trade with Britain each year, and May is fighting to avoid the same between NI and Britain (hopefully bringing the DUP back on side) and of course any outcome better than a no-deal Brexit.
The next EU summit is in a fortnight’s time, and although this consideration is still a “backstop” – and one that EU Negotiator Michel Barnier has already shunned – it improves the chances for Brexit negotiations to progress beyond what has been a key sticking point since Article 50 was invoked. It looks like the UK may concede Northern Ireland to remain within the EU regulatory area, if in exchange the EU can stomach the whole UK benefiting from a “temporary” extension of existing customs.
This time Mrs May actually has a shot because for starters if Dublin and Belfast endorse an all-UK customs union with the EU it places the culpability risking the Good Friday Agreement at the feet of Brussels and the EU over the UK. Theresa May might be dancing confidently now but the next few weeks will require a lot more shuffling, and possibly more embarrassment, but she goes into the room with at least one more ally. 26 more to go.
In other news, maintaining the balance of good/bad and sense/absurdity: Scottish authorities now require official maps of the region to NOT put the Shetland Islands in a box beside Aberdeen; presumably for the people who thought the islands weren’t a 13 hour ferry away (in which case we better also inform them that Alaska and Hawaii aren’t just off the coast of Mexico!)